Market sizing assumptions attacked before the board sees them

The decision tree

6 typed decisions, each with an action for every answer

At fixed moments in a run, the engine puts one narrow question to a decision model. The decision model never writes text: it answers yes or no with a probability, picks from listed options, or gives a score, about a small slice of the material. The engine then does exactly what this tree says, which is what makes the run auditable. The thresholds are the template's design values, not measured results.

1. 1

   Planner, while planning

   Scope checkA choice among options

   Before work starts on a unit

   Where does this assumption's figure come from?

   Sees only: One assumption as written in the model notes and the list of supplied sources

   Why: An assumption with no source cannot be defended or attacked, only owned by its author.

   • A supplied source→thenAccept
   • A source that was not supplied→thenMark unresolved
   • The author's own estimate→thenAsk a person
2. 2

   After workers, the judge checks

   Evidence checkYes or no, with a probability

   After a worker answers

   Does the quoted source passage give the figure for the same segment, geography and year as the model uses it?

   Sees only: The assumption as used in the model and the quoted source passage with its definitions

   Why: Borrowed figures usually fail on scope, not on arithmetic.

   00.50 and 0.851

   • Yes: 0.85 or higher→thenAccept
   • Unsure: 0.50 up to 0.85→thenEscalate to a strong model
   • No: below 0.50→thenReject and retry
3. 3

   Evidence checkYes or no, with a probability

   After a worker answers

   Does the attack quote a supplied source or a definition that differs from the model's, rather than argue from general plausibility?

   Sees only: The attack's argument and its quoted passage

   Why: Keeps the challenge to evidence, so the author cannot wave it away as opinion.

   00.50 and 0.851

   • Yes: 0.85 or higher→thenAccept
   • Unsure: 0.50 up to 0.85→thenMark unresolved
   • No: below 0.50→thenReject and retry
4. 4

   Reconciler, while merging

   Conflict checkA choice among options

   While reconciling

   As the model uses it, does the assumption survive the exchange?

   Sees only: The verified defence and the verified attack for one assumption

   Why: Single-sourced and wrongly scoped links are reported as such, not as passes.

   • Survives on the quoted source→thenAccept
   • The source supports a different scope→thenMark unresolved
   • The source says otherwise→thenAsk a person
   • Holds, but on a single source→thenMark unresolved
5. 5

   Run control, between rounds

   Another round?Yes or no, with a probability

   Between rounds

   Did the last exchange produce a new quoted passage from either side?

   Sees only: The quotes cited in the last two exchanges for one assumption

   Why: Ends the argument when both sides are only repeating themselves.

   00.30 and 0.601

   • Yes: 0.60 or higher→thenContinue
   • Unsure: 0.30 up to 0.60→thenStop
   • No: below 0.30→thenStop
6. 6

   Accountable person, before anything is settled

   Person decidesYes or no, with a probability

   Before anything is reported as settled

   Does a failed or single-sourced assumption feed the headline market figure through the chain of dependencies?

   Sees only: The assumption's ruling and its place in the dependency chain

   Why: The author owns the figure that is presented and decides what to change.

   Accountable: The model's author decides which assumptions to change and owns the figure that is presented.

   00.10 and 0.301

   • Yes: 0.30 or higher→thenAsk a person
   • Unsure: 0.10 up to 0.30→thenAsk a person
   • No: below 0.10→thenAccept